$100 for GTA 6 would be 'a bridge too far', even for stolen cars
Blog Andrew Joseph 24 Jan , 2025 0
A few years ago, most big AAA games cost $60. Then came the price increase, with the competition starting again at $70. Now, this week, we're hearing increasing talk that the most anticipated game of 2025, Grand Theft Auto 6, might cost not more than $70, not $80, or even $90… but $100.
Really?
Technically, the $100 GTA 6 recommendation comes from Epyllion CEO and analyst Matthew Ball. A lengthy demonstration of the state of the game in 2025 Published last week. near end of speech“Some game makers want GTA 6 to cost $80 to $100, breaking the $70 barrier and helping the $50 title go up to $60, $60, and $70,” Ball said. $70 to $80 etc.”
“Packed game prices have never been lower in real terms than they are today, even with budgets at an all-time high and player growth stalled,” Ball wrote. “Despite rampant costs, GTA 6 can re-establish numbers Video game prices re-established after decade of deflation.”
Ball's report doesn't directly claim that GTA 6 will cost $100, just that some game makers want it to cost that much. But just suggesting on social media about the cost of GTA 6 is possible or recommended, and whether doing so would actually help the industry… or GTA. So I contacted some other analysts about their concepts. They have…ideas.
Can GTA 6 actually cost $100?
Absolutely, says Carriage analyst Mat Piscatella. What might be possible, especially for a game as anticipated as GTA 6. But is this a possible or reasonable outcome? “Probably not.”
“It's not necessary,” he In Brusky's post he wrote. “You want to make the funnel as wide as possible while also optimizing launch $. You don't make the funnel narrower (by) making the base price of the game so high. That doesn't make sense. Not at all.”
Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of Super Bulletin, agreed that a price increase would be a “mistake” for Take-Two and Rockstar, noting that it's unlikely to be a departure from GTA 5's success. Such a good thing for them. :
“Part of their success with GTA 5 comes from their pricing strategy – launching late in the console cycle at a standard price and then selling the same players another copy when they upgrade to a new console,” he said. “They might Will stick with this proven approach, although they will certainly offer a premium version at a higher price. ”
I spoke with five different analysts, and all of them largely agreed that GTA 6 won't cost more than the usual $70…at least for the base game. Because both Piscatella and Midia's Rhys Elliott point out a critical vulnerability: Publishers Already Charge $100 for the game.
“The biggest AAA games already charge $100 (sometimes more) for the first 3-7 days before release, but they call it 'early access' and give it a 'collector's edition' in the name,” he said. Publishers hijack collection editions as a way to charge more for 'early access' – aka delayed access to consumers unwilling to pay the markup.”
Elliott has already named a number of publishers using this strategy, such as WB Games (Hogwarts Legacy), Xbox (Starfield), EA (EA Sports FC 25), and Ubisoft (Star Wars: Outlaws).
But he added that even in the case of GTA, the idea of charging $100 for a “base game” without those perks was “a bridge too far.”
“Either way, they're going to be successful,” he said. “GTA 6 will be a cultural phenomenon and there will probably be a $100 price tag, but the backlash from players will be significant and it will be a short-term gain at a long-term cost.” Maximizing day-to-day premium income and sticker shock to mass consumers isn't the role here, especially in today's economy, though many gamers will pass on GTA. 6's single-player play, but online engagement (as well as recurring revenue expenditures) will occur, which is where Rockstar doesn't want to limit its total addressable market.
“One of the main challenges in GTA 6 is convincing players to jump ship from GTA 5's online component, so creating unnecessarily higher switching costs here would be unwise.”
How much does GTA Online cost?
Elliott makes a key point here: GTA 5 is a successful game, but what's actually given it the continued power to sell 5 million units a quarter for a decade is its online multiplayer GTA Online. Which begs the question: Even if GTA 6 costs $70, how much will it cost in GTA Online? Like before, will Rockstar and Take-Two really turn this into something else?
Omdia's senior gaming analyst James McWhirter thinks.
“GTA Online is key to GTA 5's continued success, driving premium sales and subscription service licensing; the launch of GTA 6 is unlikely to break precedent twice,” he said. “Only after a strong player base has been established for the next generation of GTA Online will alternative pricing options emerge, which will be based on long-term participation. The real challenge lies in managing continuity between the two live-service GTA Online games. According to The way the two are doing it, alternative business models will emerge sooner or later.”
Elliott largely agrees that the same model as before is very likely, pointing out that GTA 5 and Red Dead Redemption 2 didn't see the launch of their online modes until shortly after the main game's release. But he also sees potential in other possibilities:
“While I think we'll see something similar with GTA 6 and its online component, I could also see a world where Rockstar launches them completely separately,” he said. “If they do that, they'll probably be in.” Single-player version” to add some online perks to push players to play online. Another possibility is to have the core story play out in GTA 6 and then add subsequent story content into the online mode – perhaps the best of both worlds.
“As for subscriptions, Rockstar will likely continue with the content set out in GTA+, perhaps adding a battle pass to supplement it.”
5 million per quarter
I've been covering Take-Two's earnings calls for a few years now, and inevitably in my memory they managed to sell five million copies of GTA 5 while also making a ton of GTA money online. It's been over ten years now. It's hard to imagine any other game matching or exceeding that level of success.
But if any game can, it's GTA 6 that doesn't seem to need to bother its players by hiking the price of the base game. Assuming GTA 6's launch costs and plans are roughly the same as GTA 5's, Van Dreunen came up with a response for me through predictions. this is a He was made before December 2023but he also stands now: GTA 6 can and will match or exceed GTA 5's success.
“When GTA 5 launched in 2013, approximately 29% of console gamers (35 million) purchased a copy,” he said. “Assuming similar adoption rates from the expected 130 million console installed base in 2025, GTA 6 will likely sell approximately 38 million copies in its first twelve months at an average selling price of $70 and will generate approximately $2.7 billion through digital and physical channels, consistent with Take-Two's projected 2025 projected earnings. consistent.”
If Gamemakers are hoping and praying for a $100 GTA or even $80, it sounds like they may have to keep dreaming after all.
Rebekah Valentine is a senior reporter at IGN. You can find her posts at bluesky @duckvalentine.bsky.social. Have a story tip? Send it to [email protected].
